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“We continue to view regulation as the largest risk to prediction markets,” says the analyst. “While industry growth remains robust, adverse legal outcomes could materially impact sports contract availability and long-term adoption.”
Amid a string of losses in federal appellate courts, it appears increasingly prediction markets are angling to take their cases to the U.S. Supreme Court, banking that the high court will allow them to continue offering sports event contracts free of state gambling regulations.
Some legal experts and members of the investment community believe it’s possible the Supreme Court could hear a prediction market case at some point over the next six or seven months.
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The first is the ongoing cannibalization of in-person gaming by online casinos. The Mid-Atlantic is home to four of the country’s eight legal iGaming states: Delaware, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.
While in-person casino revenue declined in Delaware, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania, iGaming reported GGR growth in each jurisdiction. iGaming revenue in New Jersey was up 4.4%, Pennsylvania’s online casinos saw GGR climb almost 6%, and Delaware iGaming surged 35%.
Though Maryland, Virginia, and New York do not have iGaming, prediction markets offering trading on everything from sports to politics continue to make their platforms accessible. Controversial sweepstakes casinos additionally continue to operate in Virginia and Maryland.
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Members pushed the government for further action to block illegal websites, in the same way it provides power to quickly address terrorist and child pornography sites.
Members advocated for stronger powers to be given to Kansspelautoriteit (KSA), the regulator of gambling in the Netherlands, with tougher action taken against payment providers, social media sites and affiliates that facilitate illegal gambling.
Van Bruggen revealed the cabinet was in the process of developing legislation to introduce DNS blocking for illegal sites, with a consultation due for early 2027.