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He warns governments and policymakers often misunderstand the primary causes of problem gambling, and therefore enforce measures that squeeze licensed operators and drive the illegal market.
For the AiA, however, the longer-term ambition for Africa Safer Gambling Week extends beyond reducing the size of the offshore market.
Kesitilwe says the AiA also wants to develop a clearer picture of problem gambling across Africa and use that evidence to support engagement with governments and policymakers.
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The methods allegedly used by the duo mirror those employed by organized crews in a wave of burglaries targeting gaming establishments across the state, particularly in the Chicago suburbs.
Police allege Heckman and Ziemer typically gained entry through the roof, cut the power, and used sledgehammers and crowbars to smash or remove ATMs.
Their targets included Nellie’s Tavern in Decatur, where an ATM was stolen July 17, and Debbie’s Gaming, also in Decatur, where thieves failed to pry an ATM from the floor July 30.
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Potentially boding well for the Macquarie forecast are at least two factors. First, there are signs of turnover increases across a variety of yes/no exchanges. Second, volume surged to start September with those spikes arriving even before the NFL season kicked off.
As Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon points out, prediction markets generated $4.3 billion in taker volume during the first week of September without any help from the NFL, building on momentum from the 2026 World Cup. However, the NFL’s impact was immediate, with taker volume hitting a daily record during Week 1 of the campaign.
With all that in mind, it’s not surprising that Macquarie expects sports event contracts will drive approximately 80% of taker volume this year, but Beynon sees other categories growing over the long term.